[NeilP]

Well we arrive at Mexico just in time for the Day of the Dead as always.  Dead could well be Lewis Hamiltons title hopes after this race, with Max Verstappens 12 point lead looking to increase to at least 18 this weekend with a win it could be the straw that breaks the camels back especially with Brazil to come where again Red Bull will be favourites.  Mercedes and Hamilton need to dig really deep if they are keep their number one drivers hopes alive. I just dont see it. In fact I think Hamilton will have a hugely difficult time to even finish second here.

I wonder if Mercedes will take a new ICU here for Hamilton. If they are going to do so it has to in truth be either here or Brazil but can they even afford to take the risk, I personally do not think so.  There are five races left and in reality you have to think Hamilton has to win at least three of them to retain his title. As a fan I am not blind I think that is highly improbable.  As I have said many times on here and in chat I will never write him out of anything but Verstappens win at COTA was in my mind a big dagger to the heart of his chances.

We have run this race five times on the current layout and have seen three wins by Mercedes to two by Red Bull. Hamiltons has two wins here including the last race held here in 2019. One for Nico Rosberg in 2016 and of course the salient issue two by Max Verstappen in 2017 and 2018 both by a considerable margin.  When Hamilton does not win here his results are poor finishing 4th in 2018 and 9th in 2017.  Anything other than second to Verstappen here would be a total disaster and of course even that may not be enough.

Outside of the Mercedes vs Red Bull fight the best battle on the grid is Ferrari vs McLaren.  McLaren currently have a 3.5 point lead for third place in the constructors race.  To my mind Lando Norris is the driver of the year.  That will obviously not be the case should Max Verstappen win the Championship but to me based on what he has carwise his performances have stood out the most. You expected Verstappen and Hamilton to do what they are doing they are easily the best two drivers in F1 right now and given the superiority of the cars they drive its totally expected.  I think Norris has wrung out better performances than he perhaps had a right to based on his car.  Just my thoughts there.

We have seen that practices in F1 have become pretty meaningless in terms of deciding who has any advantage for the races themselves.  It is qualifying more than ever that is now the benchmark and perghaps the only benchmark.  I have to say because of that my idea is not to be so much bothered with watching practice anymore which is sad because I enjoy the banter when online and it is great to see others opinions.  One reason I think we see less of us in chat both on practice days and even more so race days is because we are all seeing things happen at different times and do not want our enjoyment of the race especially spoiled by someone posting what they see happen ahead of what we are seeing in real time. In the USA I am always way behind you guys especially with races in Europe and Asia. Not sure there is anything we can do about that which again is somewhat sad but understandable.

Hope to see more posts from you guys it would be sad to see this site disappear.

Take care and be safe.

[morini]

Well we arrive at Mexico just in time for the Day of the Dead as always.  Dead could well be Lewis Hamiltons title hopes after this race, with Max Verstappens 12 point lead looking to increase to at least 18 this weekend with a win it could be the straw that breaks the camels back especially with Brazil to come where again Red Bull will be favourites.  Mercedes and Hamilton need to dig really deep if they are keep their number one drivers hopes alive. I just dont see it. In fact I think Hamilton will have a hugely difficult time to even finish second here.

I wonder if Mercedes will take a new ICU here for Hamilton. If they are going to do so it has to in truth be either here or Brazil but can they even afford to take the risk, I personally do not think so.  There are five races left and in reality you have to think Hamilton has to win at least three of them to retain his title. As a fan I am not blind I think that is highly improbable.  As I have said many times on here and in chat I will never write him out of anything but Verstappens win at COTA was in my mind a big dagger to the heart of his chances.

I haven't given up all hope, but it is fast getting to the stage where Hamilton will need something dramatic to happen to win the WDC. His biggest problem is Max now has a lead and that puts Lewis at a big strategic disadvantage on track. Max won't think twice about taking him out providing they both DNF. He won't care if he doesn't score another point all year providing Lewis doesn't either. I think title #8 is too big an ask TBH.

Hope to see more posts from you guys

I agree, but out of my control. We lost a regular contributor who hasn't logged on since August so that doesn't help the post stats.

[Antilochos]

Like I said before, the title fight is far from over. It is only 12 points and anything can happen like this season has proven (how many DNF do we have?).
Beside the extreme DNF, look at only last race; a Mercedes track and even Hamilton track, yet it was Verstappen that won. While Turkey seemed more a Red Bull track but Mercedes was mighty strong. Same can happen with Mexico and Brazil.
And even if Mexico and Brazil goes to Verstappen, I still suspect Mercedes (read Hamilton) to be favourite in the last three races, which could still be enough to win.
I really love this fight and at this moment don't dare to predict who will come out on top.

Neil I agree that the Ferrari vs McLaren battle is another great thing this year. Just lovely to see this battle, although I think McLaren with Mercedes engine is the better car.
Norris is great this year. I don't agree with driver of the year, since Verstappen really is flawless and fighting with Hamilton on another level than the rest of the field. But Norris will get there, give him one or two years.

Talking about drivers, same goes for Leclerc. I really believe that kid is one of the best in the field. He obviously is better than Saintz, who I rate very highly and was the better of Norris last year. Can't wait to see Ferrari fighting at the top again.
Another great driver this year is Russell. Love that kid. Has lot to learn, but just like Verstappen you can see the raw and natural race speed in him. Wonder how he will deal with pressure. Again great times ahead with him in a Mercedes next year.
And I have to mention Gasly. He doesn't get the recognition he deserves. Clearly getting the maximum out of the car, but had lots of bad luck and very few but costly mistakes. Gasly is a great driver.

But Mexico. Verstappen is favourite, although last years it was a Renault engine that could handle that altitude well. I don't believe it automatically will be the same for Red Bull - Honda. And I never underestimate Mercedes-Hamilton.

I will miss the qualifying chat, but try to join the race chat. Can't promise though, I really need more hours in the days right now...

[PaddyB]

Ok my tuppenceworth. Sorry about the length of post, i don't post often but once i start i have to empty my head.

I think that so far it has been a more interesting season because of both the closeness at the top and also the improving capabilities of Ferrari, McLaren and occasionally the other teams.

I get a bit fed up with the handbags and childish behaviour of some of the team bosses and owners but accept it is part of the circus that is F1.

I'm always quite impressed with the RBR B team (more so often than the A team but i think that is more to do with the personalities in charge).

Aston Martin have been disappointing in my view as have Alfa Romeo. HAAS and Williams are fighting for last spot but Williams seem to have the upper hand. I suspect that has more to do with Russell outdriving the car and how poor HAAS have been than any real jump in performance from Williams cars but i may be being a bit unfair there. I do suspect that Williams will struggle next year with the new regs and without Russell.

I cant make my mind up if Renault have done anything worth getting excited about, they show the occasional bit of promise but never seem to get anything consistent going and whilst i think that Alonso is helping develop the car, i dont put them in the same class as McLaren and Ferrari.

I also think that Merc have an eye on the WCC and hence are trying to ensure they dont have DNFs (the only way they will lose it in my view). This may mean that Lewis is compromised by caution from the power unit nannies.

That's the WCC sorted then, on to the WDC.

Whilst i would like to see Hamilton get his 8th WDC and then possibly retire unbeaten at the top of his game (mainly because he is British and also because the sheer hard work and talent over the years means he deserves it), i think that the tide has turned a bit in the last couple of races.
Part of that is because of the obvious Max wins and the points tally which doesn't lie. I suspect that the other part which is still left to play is the engine robustness/reliability issue which is uncharacteristic of Mercedes. I think that a combination of Merc nursing the engines and the likelihood of a DNF puts some of the advantage towards RBR.
I also think that the No2 drivers still have a big role. Bottas over the years has been very good for Lewis but getting towards the end of his stint with Merc, his continuing dedication to playing rear gunner might be a cause for concern. On the other hand Perez seems to have been coming back to some form and i would expect him to race well in Mexico and Brazil at least.

If Lewis doesn't win the championship this year and Max gets it, i do wonder if Max will change at all for next year with some of the hunger having calmed down a bit. I certainly think that Max will get a WDC at some point (but cant see him getting 7!) but next years rule change might frustrate him if RBR aren't out of the blocks quickly. An advantage for him for next year may well be that Russell takes points off Lewis whereas that is unlikely to be allowed at RBR or Ferrari if they are in the game.

Having said all of this im generally more interested in McLaren who i think are improving consistently each year. I hope that they get a good start with the new rules and i also hope that DRicc becomes a bit more consistent because i think that Norris (superstar in the making in my view) has carried the team this year.

Whilst I am not a fan of Ferrari (mainly because the management generally sucks and has a whiff of entitlement about it) i think that the sport needs them to be in the top three ish so i am genuinely hoping that they continue improving - with the possible exception of Merc next year with Russell, i think they have the best driver pairing on the grid. Their engineering is pretty good if at times a bit chancy but in many ways their own history and expectations are their own biggest enemy. Bizzarely I think they need a non-Italian to lead the team who might balance the expectations of a nation with doing the right thing for the team without getting as caught up in the headlights of the Italian Press / Tifosi.

Hope to join the chat but lots happening at present which means my weekends are prioritised in advance so circumstances will dictate.

[PapaofGags]

If's but's & maybe's.

I watched the weekend debrief last night with Sam Collins F1 tech analyst who said both McLaren's Lewis & maybe Max will have to take another engine in Mexico.

[morini]

If's but's & maybe's.

I watched the weekend debrief last night with Sam Collins F1 tech analyst who said both McLaren's Lewis & maybe Max will have to take another engine in Mexico.

Nightmare!

I still think Mercedes dropped a major bollock changing Lewis' PU at Turkey. In hindsight he's have won that one comfortably.

[NeilP]

If I am Mercedes I hope Max does take a new engine in Mexico. Then I run my own race with one of my existing engines and hope to win a race that has Red Bull already inscribed on the trophy. Mercedes have to take some element of risk if they are to catch Max. That said I am sure Red Bull are well aware of that fact. The bottom line here is if Max wins Hamilton MUST be second at worst and even that as I have previously stated is not enough. Its roll the dice time for Mercedes the odds are heavily against them unless we get a DNF vs a Finish somewhere along the way and that can go both ways.

I really feel that overall Red Bull have been better on their pit wall than Mercedes this season, too many mistakes made which is very unusual for them.

[Monster Hesh]

It has turned into a strange year for reliability, after it has all been so strong in the recent years. Or, is it just because the title fight is involved we are exclaiming the impact more.

I still have the unfortunate feeling title fight is going to be decided by a positive case.

Personally I'm still taking more enjoyment from the McLaren and Ferrari battle, as I said so very early on in the season. Its so close, each weekend ever changing form. Perhaps Ferrari have taken the edge for the closing rounds, but its too difficult to predict, which is perfect. I hope Forza is enjoying it as much as I.

More evening F1 for the weekend, yes please!

[NeilP]

I expect to be in Chat for FP2 if anyone else was thinking of going there.

[Monster Hesh]

Man top two teams have a clear lead over the rest, with only Gasly bridging the gap, as he so very often has done throughout the years hotlap timings. Sure it'll all change come FP2.