[forzaferrari]

I too think the championship is still wide open, 4 races left with plenty of opportunities and points up for grabs for both teams, we seen earlier in the season (Max`s 2 dnf`s) things can change very, very quickly....no reason to think any different now imo. I must admit I am very happy to see Lewis and Mercedes having to work for this championship, in my eyes there is not a lot between the top 2 drivers & cars this year.....something we should all be very grateful for!

Not the most exciting of races by any means....once MV had swooped around the outside of the Mercs into T1.

---

On to Brazil and I think again this is a Red Bull advantage track. Mercedes need to spring a major shock here if the they are stay in front in the Constructors. All things being equal its hard to see past another Verstappen win.

Genuine question....why do you all see this a RBR advantage track? (just as was said about Mexico)....I dont see it as clear cut as you all do, am I missing something?

Mexico wins
   

Brazil
   

[PapaofGags]

I agree with everything you said Anti apart from the your last statement. 

---

Genuine question....why do you all see this a RBR advantage track? (just as was said about Mexico)....I dont see it as clear cut as you all do, am I missing something?

OK that stat surprised me. (shot memory) 

I suppose most of us just see any altitude track as advantage Honda/Red Bull, looking at this year two race's in Austria & Mexico Max/Red Bull have been very strong so I suppose I just presume that they will be favorite in Brazil, though your post gives me some hope, though in Mexico they were epic.   

Maybe the most dominant win of the year for Max & Red Bull, coming good now its squeaky bum time, plaudits.

Checo now seems to have dialed in with a setup that suits him, looking at the race Max now has a no 2 that can help Max & Red Bull, they have been fighting two cars for a long time, now they can play the strategic games to their advantage, imo they are going to be very hard to beat in both Championships.

Gasly has had some difficult weekends lately but was my DOTD in Mexico.

The Ferrari fight is getting interesting, they seem to have taken a step in their fight with McLaren, the bit that has pleasantly surprised me is Carlos (behind by 7.5 pts) is almost Matching Charles in his first year, with four races to go I'd bet CLK is getting nervous.

Got to feel for Valtteri, apart from the start.......He should have watched Sebastian squeezing Lewis. (2019 I think.)

I was also surprised no penalty was given to Danny.

Thought Lewis drove the wheels off his car, this year there has been a class of two.

So Brazil here we come, *If* Max wins he will need three 2nd's to take the WDC, pressure on Lewis & Mercedes.

[morini]

OK that stat surprised me. (shot memory) 

Me too, actually. My "perception" of Brazil is a generally weak circuit for Lewis.

Brazil has never really been a Lewis Hamilton speciality track, in all honesty. In fact, I'd go as far as to say it's been a bit unkind and more of a bogey track for him, sometimes luck related, other times poor race showings. 2012 being a classic example (his last race for McLaren IIRC, but I could be wrong on that with my failing memory) where he'd have won comfortably if not for being taken out by The Hulk. Gifted a win to a second rate Button on that occasion as well. Ouch.

[Antilochos]

Genuine question....why do you all see this a RBR advantage track? (just as was said about Mexico)....I dont see it as clear cut as you all do, am I missing something?

Touché. Hit us with the facts.

[NeilP]

Genuine question....why do you all see this a RBR advantage track? (just as was said about Mexico)....I dont see it as clear cut as you all do, am I missing something?

Touché. Hit us with the facts.

You want facts I'll give you facts

Red Bull EASILY won the last race here in 2019. Hamilton won in 2018 but the only reason he did so was Esteban Ocon took Verstappen out when he was miles clear of Hamilton.  There are lots of twists and turns on this circuit which massively suits Red Bull over Mercedes.  Fastest lap 2017 Max Verstappen.  Fastest lap 2016 Max Verstappen.  If you watched the race this weekend you will have noticed Mercedes was slightly better on the straights in sector 1 than Red Bull (But questionable as to whether it could over take on that straight) but the Red Bull absolutely killed Mercedes in the middle sector and indeed the last sector. Its just more suited to a slower twisty circuit than Mercedes.

That is nothing new its been that way the whole turbo hybrid era.  If you look back and rewatch (As I do often) the last two races there Max actually got so much of his overtaking on the start and finish straight  and into the first corner which supposedly suits Mercedes better. He goes very well here always has.  On the other hand Hamilton although he has fond memories of winning his first World Championship here has (Only!) won twice in the Turbo Hybrid era and one of those as previously stated was gifted to him by the Ocon crash with Verstappen.

If we look to our friends on the betting line  for the Brazilian GP (Which I totally do not understand because I am not a gambling man) Verstappen favourite at -190 Hamilton second favourite at +220. Current odds to win the Drivers Championship: Verstappen favourite at -250, Hamilton second at +175.

As to whether its all over, well, it is pretty much unless Verstappen has a DNF or super low point score in a race it is well nigh improbable that Hamilton can catch him.  Like I posted previous he would pretty much have to win all four remaining races.  Why is that you ask, well here we go:

Apart from his two DNF's and the Hungarian GP Verstappen has won nine races and finished second in every other race. It is reasonable to assume that if he does not win any of the remaining races he will finish second. For now lets put aside the fastest lap point.

He is currently nineteen points ahead of Hamilton.  Lets say Hamilton won three of the last four races and Max wins one.  That is only a point advantage of fourteen to Hamilton, insufficient to overhaul Verstappen even if he also took all four points for fastest laps.

The reality is Hamilton is not winning the last four races, he has only won five all year long.  It is a simple mathmatic equation that unless a DNF happens for Max based on what has gone before he will easily win the championship. Based on what has happened before realistically you could only say two race wins each is more probable and even three wins by Verstappen to one to Hamilton is a much stronger possibility than Hamilton winning all four.

Strange things have happened before but this would be a super high improbability.  Remember when Rosberg won in 2016?  Hamilton did win the last four races but was still unable to catch Rosberg, who incidentally finished second in all four of those races.

That people is the reality of the situation.

[forzaferrari]

Nice explanation Neil, cheers.

[Antilochos]

Genuine question....why do you all see this a RBR advantage track? (just as was said about Mexico)....I dont see it as clear cut as you all do, am I missing something?

Touché. Hit us with the facts.

You want facts I'll give you facts

Red Bull EASILY won the last race here in 2019. Hamilton won in 2018 but the only reason he did so was Esteban Ocon took Verstappen out when he was miles clear of Hamilton.  There are lots of twists and turns on this circuit which massively suits Red Bull over Mercedes.  Fastest lap 2017 Max Verstappen.  Fastest lap 2016 Max Verstappen.  If you watched the race this weekend you will have noticed Mercedes was slightly better on the straights in sector 1 than Red Bull (But questionable as to whether it could over take on that straight) but the Red Bull absolutely killed Mercedes in the middle sector and indeed the last sector. Its just more suited to a slower twisty circuit than Mercedes.

That is nothing new its been that way the whole turbo hybrid era.  If you look back and rewatch (As I do often) the last two races there Max actually got so much of his overtaking on the start and finish straight  and into the first corner which supposedly suits Mercedes better. He goes very well here always has.  On the other hand Hamilton although he has fond memories of winning his first World Championship here has (Only!) won twice in the Turbo Hybrid era and one of those as previously stated was gifted to him by the Ocon crash with Verstappen.

If we look to our friends on the betting line  for the Brazilian GP (Which I totally do not understand because I am not a gambling man) Verstappen favourite at -190 Hamilton second favourite at +220. Current odds to win the Drivers Championship: Verstappen favourite at -250, Hamilton second at +175.

As to whether its all over, well, it is pretty much unless Verstappen has a DNF or super low point score in a race it is well nigh improbable that Hamilton can catch him.  Like I posted previous he would pretty much have to win all four remaining races.  Why is that you ask, well here we go:

Apart from his two DNF's and the Hungarian GP Verstappen has won nine races and finished second in every other race. It is reasonable to assume that if he does not win any of the remaining races he will finish second. For now lets put aside the fastest lap point.

He is currently nineteen points ahead of Hamilton.  Lets say Hamilton won three of the last four races and Max wins one.  That is only a point advantage of fourteen to Hamilton, insufficient to overhaul Verstappen even if he also took all four points for fastest laps.

The reality is Hamilton is not winning the last four races, he has only won five all year long.  It is a simple mathmatic equation that unless a DNF happens for Max based on what has gone before he will easily win the championship. Based on what has happened before realistically you could only say two race wins each is more probable and even three wins by Verstappen to one to Hamilton is a much stronger possibility than Hamilton winning all four.

Strange things have happened before but this would be a super high improbability.  Remember when Rosberg won in 2016?  Hamilton did win the last four races but was still unable to catch Rosberg, who incidentally finished second in all four of those races.

That people is the reality of the situation.

Good explanation Neil and it make sense.

Yet with the championship being over I still don't agree (never will, otherwise it gets dull here...). We could write just as a sensible prediction like you did for the last couple of races, but then for the whole season before it started. And I bet non of us would write it out like it happened this year.

One thing we must agree on; this season is very exciting and enjoyable. F1 needed this.

[PapaofGags]

You want facts I'll give you facts

Good explanation Neil and it make sense.


One thing we must agree on; this season is very exciting and enjoyable. F1 needed this.

Nice post Neil, it always helps to have a mate with a memory that works properly lol.  

True Anti, which ever way it goes this year has been edge of the seat at times.    

May the best man win....... as long as he's a Brit.          

[NeilP]

Even as a huge Hamilton fan as I am it is hard to deny that Verstappen deserves to win the title this year. Nine wins to five is a pretty comprehensive win in my book. There will always be 'coulda, shoulda, woulda' arguments in any sport and indeed life.

He will win this year because he has been super consistent over the whole year, his car has been the better of the two protagonists for most if not all of the season and his team have made the right calls at the right time. Plus he got a little lady luck to go his way too and that is also something especially in F1 you need at times to win.

I (wrongly I feel) questioned whether Rosberg deserved to win in 2016, his bit of Lady luck happened to Hamilton in Malaysia when his engine died on him whilst leading the race. That is seen as having cost Hamilton the championship. I do not see any one incident costing Hamilton the title through bad luck this year.

In my opinion Hamilton will not win the title this year because of the following reasons:

He did not have the car advantage he has enjoyed for many years.

He never took advantage of his opportunities, his Baku race snafu is really biting him in the ass right now.

His team made so many pit wall mistakes this year. Yes they made some good calls but overall Red Bull killed Mercedes pit wall this year in my book. Simply put they were the better team ( You got to know that kills me to say that).

He is not used to chasing points and with that comes a requirement to change your driving style. I think these guys driving relationship changed forever at Silverstone. Hamilton has realized that not having a superior car needs a different attitude and style of racing. He showed that at the British GP. Everyone has an opinion on who was to blame for that coming together and I think that depends on who you favour. To me Hamilton did nothing wrong and was unjustly penalized but it mattered not he won the race. This is the future Blueprint for these two. No quarter given. To beat a track bully you need to be a track bully Hamilton should not shy away from that and if that means he needs to put Verstappen into the wall so to speak in future so be it. He needs to go back to his younger days and be fearless and less thoughtful.

Finally he has been put off his game by a team and driver in absolute top form. Relatively error free and taking advanatge of every opportunity.

I will absolutely not begrudge Verstappen his Championship in the way I did Rosberg at the time. but I also freely admit I do not like it. I hate the team with all my heart they are the biggest whingers and whiners in the sport. They are staffed by people whom I loathe with every fibre of my sporting mind. If its okay to dislike Hamilton because he is Black/has poor dress sense/has a different lifestyle oe whatever other thing you want to throw out there then it is okay for me to dislike Max because, well I hate him!!!!!

On to Brazil...

[black]

I said at the time, perhaps not on here, could have been planet F1, Hamilton would live to regret not claiming at least a second place in Baku. Still not out of the question as the WDC is mathematically feasible in 2021, but it is a major uphill task with a 19 point deficit and a rival who won't think twice about nerfing his competitor off the track. If by some miracle Hamilton has an epic run in and wins the last four races then he will fully deserve title #8. The cars have been generally close in race pace at a lot of races (not Mexico, the RBR was at least 0.6 second per lap quicker this Sunday), but the RBR has had a significant advantage over 1 lap all year. If Max prevails and secures his first championship then nobody could complain as he has been almost fault free this year. I really do not believe the Mercedes has the underlying pace to win the last 4 races though. They have not brought enough performance to their car and been out developed.

Spa was a huge annoyance and irritated me most. A massive (in the context of this close fight) ten point swing and nobody should be allowed to record a "win" in the record books for that farce. FIA should be ashamed of that decision, race should have been cancelled with no points awarded. In my eyes Max is still 8 - 5 up in races and fully deserves his championship lead.

Like Neil, I will not begrudge Max if he wins it this year. I intensely dislike his team management and I also think his father is a thug rather than a role model, but there is no denying Max is a very good F1 driver. I do have everything crossed that Lewis Hamilton can pull a rabbit out of the hat but fear is is highly unlikely.