[Antilochos]

After last race in Russia were Verstappen changed engine and ended P2 with just a handful of races to go, it is an interesting discussion who is actually ahead cq in favour for winning the championship (with only 2 points difference). So why not a little tread about it.

I give it a go.

First two drivers. I think both are great and it is impossible to tell which of the two is better. Form? I must admit that Hamilton is making more mistakes this year than Verstappen. Hell, only in Sochi he hit a crew member and the wall, twice. But, on Sunday he is there and doing a great job, as he use to do. Like Neil said; never count Hamilton out, never.
Verstappen is driving better then ever and I can't catch him on many mistakes this year. 
Again, they are so close, hard to tell. So I conclude both are equal going into the rest of the races.

The engine discussion. Verstappen with a engine swap in Sochi seems to have a big advantage. Not sure if the Mercedes engine from Hamilton needs another swap. Could just as well be that they finish the season with that engine, but I do feel Verstappen has a step ahead here.

The coming tracks.
First is Turkey. Hamilton won that track last time. Not sure if Red Bull or Mercedes has an advantage on that track, but since Verstappen made some mistakes here last year, I say Hamilton has the advantage on this track as a driver.

US. With two very long straights and many Mercedes victories here in the past it obviously seems Hamilton has the advantage here. 
Although Verstappen always showed great racing and the Red Bull is closer to the Mercedes this year, I still give it to Hamilton but with the slightest margin. Bottas and Perez with strategy could become a major factor here.

Mexico. This is a Red Bull track and Verstappen is strong here. Interesting will be how Red Bull will do with a Honda engine this year, since the other years (not last year) was with the Renault and as I understand the altitude has an impact on the cars. Still I say it is Verstappen's race to lose.

Brazil. Verstappen. This track has his name all over it. He has been impressive here every race so I really give it to Verstappen as a driver at this race.

And we move to Qatar. I don't know this track but what I saw it looks pretty tight with many curves (hope I checked the right one...). Really don't know who to give this one to but when comparing it with others like Monaco or Zandvoort, I have to give it to Verstappen.

Another new track; Saudi Arabia. Again I know nothing about this track but, again, this will not stop me to have an opinion... Street circuit but seems not that bad as Monaco. Hard to tell but looks pretty fast so should be Mercedes. On other hand, if anything like Baku were Verstappen was dominating (until the tyre blew)... Really hard to say something useful but lets give this one to Hamilton.

Last, Abu Dhabi. Lots of corners, something Verstappen would like, but also two good long straights for the Mercedes speed in Hamilton his car. Both drivers did fine in the past here, so I leave this last one undecided, just like I hope the championship will be as we enter this race.

Naturally all above doesn't mean nothing looking at the many DNF's we already had last races. I really hope we don't have more of those.

Overall, the margin is so minimal, we have a great championship ahead of us. With the amount of bad luck Verstappen has had, he should've been ahead by a huge margin by now (please don't attack me on this; Hamilton said it himself this weekend). So I enjoy the battle, but believe Verstappen deserves the win in the end.

What do you guys think? Can you produce more predictive, useless nonsense then I just did?

[NeilP]

Nice post Anti.

My overall opinion of the situation is it is advantage Verstappen purely down to having an extra engine. I do not think Mercedes can risk not taking another one before the end of the season and they should not leave it too long. The overwhelming opinion on this point is pretty much all the drivers will need a new engine before the seasons end and it is no point taking it late in the season.

The situation is fluid and can change race by race. Neither driver can afford to take a DNF. To me it would make sense for Hamilton to take a new engine at Mexico. Firstly its a Red Bull circuit for sure, overtaking is not easy but doable. Can he match Verstappens 2nd at Russia? No I do not think he can which means he will need to outscore Verstappen by a fair few points to win the WDC.

I am not super knowledgeable about who is better at each track but I will give Mexico and Brazil to Verstappen. The USA and Abu Dhabi I will give to Hamilton. The rest I have no idea to be honest.

When it comes to team mates I still think despite his horrible Russian race Bottas is more use to Hamilton than Perez is to Verstappen.

It is too close to call. Lady luck will for sure have a part to play in the future races but I have had the feeling all year for one reason or another its Verstappens year. It does not look good coming from a Hamilton fan such as myself but I do feel the deck has been stacked against Mercedes this year. However I will finally acknowledge especially to Anti that yes Hamilton has made more mistakes this year than in the past and that has to be down to the pressure Verstappen and Red Bull have applied. That said I am still not that convinced Verstappen is not vulnerable to mistakes himself.

At one time I thought Verstappen would be a multiple World champion and be Schumacher and Hamiltonesq. Now I have chnaged my mind I do not believe that to be the case and I see the era ahead not being dominated by any single driver but races and Championships won by many drivers such as the likes of LeClerc, Norris, Russell and even Sainz.

But of course how the cars perform for 2022 onwards will have a large say in that department. For this season though regardless of who wins they will deserve it and I hope that there are no questionable penalties, no foul play by either team amd the best driver wins through.

P.S. Mercedes needed a second team. I honestly think that could well be a weakness in the future as both Red Bull and Ferrari have in essense second teams (You could make a point for Ferrari having three teams) and that those drivers can unduly interfere with other teams which is something mercedes currently do not have.