[NeilP]

I hesitated before I wrote the thread subject and maybe that is a silly question after just 3/21 races but in past seasons a 31 point lead has been pretty significant and lets be honest Hamilton and to a lesser degree Bottas are highly unlikely to melt down like Vettel did last season.  Add to that the Ferrari car looks a lot more unreliable than its Mercedes counterpart and I think you could begin to see where I am going here. 

I thought at the beginning of the year based on lots of positive comments about Ferrari and not so good comments about Mercedes that both title races would be tight. My thoughts were I still had Mercedes as favourites to win the Constructors title and I am totally convinced barring exceptional circumstances that fight is almost over already.

The Drivers Championship could well come down to a fight between the Mercedes drivers and I think Hamilton would beat Bottas. The team orders at Ferrari are for sure holding Leclerc back he would be well ahead of Vettel were it not for some terrible luck and team orders right now. Maybe this is crazy but I think Vettel has a very small chance of winning the WDC this season and his team mate is going to finish ahead of him regardless of team orders.

The Red Bull threat as a team anyway is yet to materialize and although Verstappen is improving its clear he does not have the power to challenge either Ferrari and Mercedes on a consistent basis.  

If Ferrari want a driver of theirs to be in with a chance to win the WDC they have to put him in the best position possible and that driver is Leclerc. Its not Vettel.